A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
